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North Korean leader Kim Jong-il with his son and heir apparent Kim Jong-un.

RECENT ANALYSIS

  • Dec 19, 2011
    North Korea After Kim Jong-il
    North Korean media announced its leader Kim Jong-il died on December 17, 2011. Questions remain about North Korea after Kim Jong-il.
  • Dec 19, 2011
    Press Release: Death of North Korean Leader
    On December 18, 2011, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il died--the Center for Arms Control and Non Proliferation has released the following statement about the recent news.
  • Oct 24, 2011
    A Certain Uncertain Certainty (Preview of U.S.-DPRK Talks)
    Chief nuclear envoys from the U.S. and North Korea will sit down again for bilateral discussions in Geneva to explore ways to resume the stalled six-party talks. The main sticking point is Pyongyang's uranium enrichment program and differences in opinion on what it takes to jumpstart nuclear negotiations.
  • See more articles »

Duyeon Kim

CENTER EXPERT

Duyeon Kim

Deputy Director of Nuclear Non-Proliferation
202-546-0795
dkim AT armscontrolcenter DOT org

For the latest North Korea related news and analysis, please see the North Korea section of our blog, Nukes of Hazard.

Click here to read "Strengthening U.S. Security Through Non-Proliferation and Arms Control: Recommendations for the Obama Administration"

North Korea has unveiled a pilot uranium enrichment facility in November 2010, and a third nuclear test is widely expected. The North Korean threat comes in two forms: vertical (development of its nuclear capability) and horizontal (spread of nuclear know-how and technology to others). Pyongyang tested two nuclear devices and is believed to be working on a third. Experts say Pyongyang has enough fissile material for 4-6 nuclear weapons. The regime is also scrambling to develop its ballistic missile program, and the critical question is whether Pyongyang will be able to tip a missile with a nuclear warhead that can reach U.S. allies in the region or even the U.S. mainland. The regime also appears to be developing its ties with other actors bent on acquiring a nuclear capability, including those in the Middle East, and preparing for a leadership succession.

Pyongyang walked away from the Six-Party Talks in 2008, but has recently expressed willingness to return to dialogue in an apparent move to shift the focus away from Cheonan, which it sank in March 2010 killing 46 South Korean sailors, and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, which killed civilians. Its main objective for a "peace offensive" seems to be aimed at receiving concessions from the South and security guarantees from the U.S.

North Korea’s fundamental objective seems clear: regime survival and status as a nuclear power. Its latest provocations since its second nuclear test in May 2009 appear to be aimed at both domestic and international audiences amid reported preparations for a leadership succession. Pyongyang claims its nuclear programs are a deterrent against “hostile U.S. policy” and has long bargained to extract political and economic concessions for denuclearization.

The policy debate has always centered around whether Pyongyang’s nuclear stockpiles can be negotiated away. Some believe that the regime under Kim Jong-il will never surrender its nuclear arsenal while others believe Pyongyang will abandon them given the right price tag. The Obama administration appears to have settled on the first school of thought, opting to contain and manage the problem until the next North Korean leadership assumes power. Progress on the nuclear dilemma will only come from aggressive diplomacy and creative ideas that directly target the crux of denuclearization, or the irreversible removal of all fissile materials and explosive devices and the dismantlement of all proliferation-prone nuclear facilities.

ARTICLES & FACT SHEETS

Dec 19, 2011 North Korea After Kim Jong-il

Oct 24, 2011 A Certain Uncertain Certainty

Aug 24, 2011 North Korea-Russia Summit: Still Standstill...Perhaps Regression, Even?

Jun 28, 2011 Tactical Nuclear Weapons and Korea

Apr 28, 2011 Negotiating with North Korea on its Nuclear Program

Feb 15, 2011 Egypt's Success, North Korea's Distress

Feb 6, 2011 UN Sanctions Committee & North Korea's UEP

Jan 25, 2011 Obama's 2011 State of the Union Address & North Korea

Jan 19, 2011 U.S.-China Summit & North Korea

Jan 18, 2011 [Center Statement] U.S.-China Summit: Chance for Opportunity on North Korea

Jan 18, 2011 Obama & Hu: Hit or Miss

Nov 23, 2010 North Korea Strikes Again

Sep 30, 2010 Kim Jong-Un: The Face Tells All

Sep 30, 2010 Kim Jong-un Unveiled

Sep 29, 2010 (UPDATED) Kim Jong-un On the Succession Fast-Track

Sep 28, 2010 Kim Jong-un On the Succession Fast-Track

Sep 23, 2010 Fact Sheet: North Korea Promotes 3 Key Diplomats

Aug 25, 2010 Jimmy Carter to the Rescue, Again

Aug 11, 2010 Another Squeeze

Mar 3, 2009 Coordination and Realism on North Korea

Oct 6, 2008 Will Ill Kim Jong-Il Derail Disarmament?

Jul 28, 2008 North Korea: Hand-Wringing Over Success

TEXT OF NUCLEAR AGREEMENTS

1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework

2005 Six-Party Joint Statement

2007 February Six-Party Agreement

2007 October Six-Party Agreement

2008 Press Communique of the (6 Party) Heads of Delegation Meeting

SANCTIONS

Nov 9, 2010 UN Sanctions Committee Report on North Korea

Aug 30, 2010 Obama: New Sanctions On North Korea (2010)

UN/U.S./EU Combined Sanctions List (July 2010)

Jun 12, 2009 UN Security Council Resolution 1874 (2009)

Oct 14, 2006 UN Security Council Resolution 1718 (2006)

Jun 28, 2005 U.S. Executive Order 13382 (2005)

CHEONAN ATTACK

Sep 13, 2010 Joint Investigation Report On the Attack Against ROK Ship Cheonan

Jul 9, 2010 UN Security Council Presidential Statement on Cheonan

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