North Korea
Resumption of the six-party talks (December 2006). AP photo.
RECENT ANALYSIS
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Mar 9, 2010
Lips and Teeth
If it is true that North Korea’s WMD programs are being funded principally from illicit arms sales, then it is imperative that China take its UN Security Council sanctions obligations more seriously. In this new analysis, Chad O'Caroll questions whether this duty will ever be compatible with China’s goal of maintaining North Korean regime stability. -
Dec 4, 2009
Commitment to Nuclear Non-Proliferation: New Directions under the Obama Administration
In this speech delivered to the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, John Isaacs argues that we have entered an era of great change on nuclear weapons issues. The election of Barack Obama as President has provided an opportunity for unprecedented transformation. If we do not see substantial progress in the next six months, however, the President’s vision will be in jeopardy. -
Sep 14, 2009
2009-2010 College Debate Topic on Nuclear Weapons: A Guide to Background Materials, Publications, & Organizations
In 2009-2010, the national college debate topic asks whether or not the United States “should substantially reduce the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal, and/or substantially reduce and restrict the role and/or missions of its nuclear weapons arsenal.” To help debaters prepare, the Center prepared an online guide to background materials, publications, and relevant organizations. - See more articles »
CENTER EXPERT
Leonor Tomero
Director for Nuclear Non-Proliferation
202-546-0795 ext.2104
ltomero AT armscontrolcenter DOT org
Click here to read "Strengthening U.S. Security Through Non-Proliferation and Arms Control: Recommendations for the Obama Administration"
Experts presently believe that North Korea has produced enough fissile material for between 5 and 12 nuclear weapons. North Korea's detonation of a nuclear device on October 9, 2006 is widely considered to have been a technical failure and the country does not yet possess the ability to install nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles. Nonetheless, Pyongyang has declared itself a nuclear state, becoming the eighth country to do so.
North Korean actions often are enigmatic, but there is no reason to doubt that the regime's fundamental objective is national survival. North Korea will fully denuclearize only when it has obtained the political arrangements that guarantee its survival. These arrangements include formal diplomatic relations with the United States, a peace agreement that officially ends the Korean War, and integration into the global economy. If it does not achieve these objectives, North Korea will continue to use its nuclear program to extract concessions that at least will keep it alive awhile longer, even if not guaranteeing the regime's long-term survival.
To set realistic expectations about North Korea's nuclear program is to accept that complete and verifiable denuclearization will not happen today, and it will not happen tomorrow. Phased nuclear stockpile reductions by North Korea should be met by political, security, and economic incentives from the six parties. The hope should not be for an immediate change in the North's behavior, nor for regime change or collapse. The hope should be for a gradual opening of North Korea to the outside world. This steady transition from rogue nuclear state to international stakeholder should be pursued with the full understanding that there will be setbacks.
ARTICLES & FACT SHEETS
Mar 3, 2009 Coordination and Realism on North Korea
Oct 6, 2008 Will Ill Kim Jong-Il Derail Disarmament?
Jul 28, 2008 North Korea: Hand-Wringing Over Success
ADDITIONAL READING
- Full Text of the February 2007 Nuclear Agreement with North Korea.
- Full Text of October 2007 Nuclear Agreement with North Korea for "Second-Phase Actions."
- Congressional Research Service, "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Development and Diplomacy," updated January 21, 2008.
- Congressional Research Service, "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Latest Developments," updated December 5, 2007.
- BBC timeline of key events in the North Korea nuclear stand-off.