North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il with his son and heir apparent Kim Jong-un.

RECENT ANALYSIS

Dec 19, 2011
North Korea After Kim Jong-il
North Korean media announced its leader Kim Jong-il died on December 17, 2011. Questions remain about North Korea after Kim Jong-il.
Dec 19, 2011
Press Release: Death of North Korean Leader
On December 18, 2011, North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il died--the Center for Arms Control and Non Proliferation has released the following statement about the recent news.
Oct 24, 2011
A Certain Uncertain Certainty (Preview of U.S.-DPRK Talks)
Chief nuclear envoys from the U.S. and North Korea will sit down again for bilateral discussions in Geneva to explore ways to resume the stalled six-party talks. The main sticking point is Pyongyang's uranium enrichment program and differences in opinion on what it takes to jumpstart nuclear negotiations.
See more articles »

Duyeon Kim

CENTER EXPERT

Duyeon Kim

Deputy Director of Nuclear Non-Proliferation
202-546-0795
dkim AT armscontrolcenter DOT org

For the latest North Korea related news and analysis, please see the North Korea section of our blog, Nukes of Hazard.

Click here to read "Strengthening U.S. Security Through Non-Proliferation and Arms Control: Recommendations for the Obama Administration"

North Korea has unveiled a pilot uranium enrichment facility in November 2010, and a third nuclear test is widely expected. The North Korean threat comes in two forms: vertical (development of its nuclear capability) and horizontal (spread of nuclear know-how and technology to others). Pyongyang tested two nuclear devices and is believed to be working on a third. Experts say Pyongyang has enough fissile material for 4-6 nuclear weapons. The regime is also scrambling to develop its ballistic missile program, and the critical question is whether Pyongyang will be able to tip a missile with a nuclear warhead that can reach U.S. allies in the region or even the U.S. mainland. The regime also appears to be developing its ties with other actors bent on acquiring a nuclear capability, including those in the Middle East, and preparing for a leadership succession.

Pyongyang walked away from the Six-Party Talks in 2008, but has recently expressed willingness to return to dialogue in an apparent move to shift the focus away from Cheonan, which it sank in March 2010 killing 46 South Korean sailors, and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, which killed civilians. Its main objective for a "peace offensive" seems to be aimed at receiving concessions from the South and security guarantees from the U.S.

North Korea’s fundamental objective seems clear: regime survival and status as a nuclear power. Its latest provocations since its second nuclear test in May 2009 appear to be aimed at both domestic and international audiences amid reported preparations for a leadership succession. Pyongyang claims its nuclear programs are a deterrent against “hostile U.S. policy” and has long bargained to extract political and economic concessions for denuclearization.

The policy debate has always centered around whether Pyongyang’s nuclear stockpiles can be negotiated away. Some believe that the regime under Kim Jong-il will never surrender its nuclear arsenal while others believe Pyongyang will abandon them given the right price tag. The Obama administration appears to have settled on the first school of thought, opting to contain and manage the problem until the next North Korean leadership assumes power. Progress on the nuclear dilemma will only come from aggressive diplomacy and creative ideas that directly target the crux of denuclearization, or the irreversible removal of all fissile materials and explosive devices and the dismantlement of all proliferation-prone nuclear facilities.